The Best Reliever Alive is a No-Name
(By: Craig Schlecht Jr)
There’s been something bothering me for a long while. For the last decade, the MLB has been obsessed with finding and analyzing every possible analytical advantage. We’ve shunned stats that show in an incomplete picture and crowned previously obscure stats that say more. Power hitters batting leadoff and starting pitchers pulled in the 4th inning of playoff games. We now look at the game completely differently. But for some reason the MLB and those who cover it seem to look past a certain piece, relief pitching.
Two Bold Claims
1) Baseball doesn’t know how to evaluate or use Relief Pitchers.
2) Baseball has evaluated Relief Pitchers so poorly that now the most valuable reliever of 2023 is a complete No-name.
Today we are going focus on evaluation and that No-name player.
A No-Name Star
First, I’ll test your baseball knowledge. Which of the following no-name players is the most valuable reliever of 2023?
Erik Swanson, Peter Fairbanks, Kyle Finnegan, Tanner Scott, Lucas Sims.
You don’t know? Okay, I’ll give you his stats. Now who is it?
This man’s name is Tanner Scott.
Who?
The former Baltimore reliever who’s been with the Marlins two years now. At 29 years old, the 7-year veteran just had his breakout year.
Let’s Compare
The Marlins lefty lost the National League Reliever of the Year to Devin Williams. First judge them by some standard reliever metrics.
Devin Williams wins in all the quintessential closer’s stats. Tanner Scott didn’t even earn a closer role until September. Williams pitched in tougher situations for saves and was significantly more effective when he pitched. Tanner’s only case was more innings.
The baseball world stopped here. Devin Williams was undeniably incredible and there were other relievers like Josh Hader who were more lights out than Tanner.
But play along with me even if Scott was less effective and he pitched the 8th instead of the 9th there must be a tipping point where his additional innings are better? But does he need 10, 20, 30, 40, innings more?
Digging Deeper
Let’s start with Win Probability Added (WPA). WPA quantifies the change in a team’s chances of winning attributable to the players performance. It reflects how a player’s actions in specific situations increase or decrease their team's probability of winning. It's most notably affected by clutch performances.
Devin Williams had a 4.1 WPA and Tanner Scott had a 4.9 WPA. Tanner Scott’s wasn’t just better, it was the best among all relievers and starters in baseball.
Interesting, but let’s keep going.
WAR
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a statistic that measures a baseball player's overall contribution to their team in terms of wins, compared to a replacement-level player.
Devin Williams had a 2.6 WAR. Tanner Scott had a 3.6 WAR. In fact, according to WAR Tanner just had the most valuable season by a reliever since 2018.
So, the two biggest metrics that quantify overall impact say that the 20 additional innings made Tanner Scott more valuable. And both metrics suggest he had a sizable lead.
So why did he lose the award? Why didn’t he make the All-Star team? Why do most fans not even know who he is?
Down The Rabbit Hole
Play along with me once more. Let’s say the voters considered Scott’s WAR and WPA. And they still believed Devin Williams was the National League Reliever of the year. Believing in picking the most efficient closer. The guy who most likely shut things down. Well, they still got the wrong guy.
Their guy should be Josh Hader.
Among two closers who had essentially the same exact role one gives up two less runs and loses. Feels like a catch-22.
The only way you can explain this comparison is by considering advanced metrics for Devin Williams. He’s got a higher WAR, WPA and he appeared in tougher situations according to Average Leverage Index. Yet, no advanced metrics were considered for Tanner Scott.
Let’s make it weirder. For N.L. Reliever of the Year Hader placed 3rd. David Bednar got 2nd.
Looking here what’s the logic? What do they want? Is it the highest WAR by a Closer? Actually no, two relievers in non-closer roles have won the award in the last 5 years (Williams 2020 & Hader 2018). Now, hold on.
The Past Winners
Josh Hader won the 2018 N.L. Reliever of the Year with this season. Tanner didn’t place in the top 3 and they don’t show voting beyond that. Scott fulfilled a very similar role just more effectively. I must now ask a crazy question.
Do the voters know who Tanner Scott is? No, seriously this is his first good year.
It’s not as crazy as you think. There are only 9 voters for reliever of the year. Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner, Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, John Franco, Lee Smith, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter. The ultimate who’s who of legendary relievers.
Wrong on All Counts
What if I told you the voting could be worse? What if there was a pitcher who was far more effective than everyone else? Threw more innings than everyone else. And won in advanced metrics like WAR and WPA.
That would be Blake Trienen in 2018, who lost A.L. Reliever of the Year to Edwin Diaz.
Did Blake Trienen pitch a bunch of insignificant games? No, the A’s won 97 games and made the playoffs. The Mariners with Diaz won 89 and missed the playoffs. So, then it’s the 21 extra saves.
Diaz must have been in tougher situations. There’s a stat for that, Average Leverage Index (aLI).
It quantifies the leverage, or importance, of the situations a player appears in. A higher aLI indicates that a player typically appears in more critical, high-pressure situations.
Blake Trienen’s aLI: 2.22
Edwin Diaz’s aLI: 2.16
Reliever of the Year voting is consistently flawed. But it’s not just them.
All-MLB Voting
Each year there are All-MLB teams (1st and 2nd) denoting the best players of the year by their respective positions. Unlike the reliever of the year awards the All-MLB voting is not just handled by a small group. It is 25% voted by players, 25% experts and 50% fans voted.
Four relievers were awarded All-MLB honors in 2023. The winners were Felix Bautista, Josh Hader, Devin Williams and Emmanuel Clase. Note the differences between Clase and Scott.
No, that’s not a typo. Clase had negative win probability added. The fans, media and players marveled over a 100 Mph cutter and 44 saves.
Unfortunately, I don’t have to look much further to find another mistake. In 2022 Alexis Diaz lost out to Ryan Pressly.
Whether it’s the All-Star team, All-MLB team, Reliever of the year voting or just basic media coverage, across all domains. We consistently misevaluate relief pitchers.
The Media Failed
What is the role of the sports media? In the simplest of terms, inform and entertain. On both fronts they failed Tanner Scott.
You now know why they should inform the baseball world about Tanner Scott’s season. Now here’s his story, how it entertains.
The Story of Tanner Scott
Why wasn’t the best reliever of 2023 a closer on day 1? This year has been Tanner's breakthrough, a stark contrast to his previous best, marked by a 4.31 ERA over 62.2 innings. Despite his evident talent, Tanner was initially held back by issues with control.
Miraculous Turnaround
This year after a terrible first month (5.25 ERA). Tanner started to get red hot. And as the Marlins started to understand how dominant he was, his role changed. In September, Tanner got his first full month as a closer and he dominated in 14 games with a 1.65 ERA. Ultimately, notching the Marlins a playoff berth from the ultra-tough N.L. East.
And of course, because he is closer now, he was awarded N.L. Reliever of the Month. But the most notable part of September for him was that he had a kid. Who I’m sure he named after Devin Williams.
Remember Tanner Scott
It's hard to express how unlikely a turnaround this was. A 28-year-old below average reliever starts the season terribly and then suddenly puts together the most valuable relief season of the last five years. And no one noticed.
Baseball isn’t talking about Tanner Scott. I’ve scoured the internet looking and the only people who seem to be talking about how great he is are Marlins fans. In my search his only video interview this year features him being asked trivia about U.S. Presidents and glue bottles. It currently has 43 views.
I’m sure there is something I missed out there somewhere, but every baseball fan should know for 2023…
Tanner Scott is the best reliever alive.
References
Tracking pitching WAR leaders by season by season (ESPN.com) MLB Wins Above Replacement - WAR - Major League Baseball - ESPN
Individual player statistics (baseballreference.com)
N.L. Reliever of the year voting (cbssports.com) MLB Relievers of the Year: Orioles' Félix Bautista, Brewers' Devin Williams honored for 2023 bullpen work - CBSSports.com
Reliever of the Year Voters, Previous winners (Wikipedia.com) Major League Baseball Reliever of the Year Award - Wikipedia
Image from DALL-E from OpenAI
All-MLB Voting results. MLB Awards history | All-MLB | MLB.com