Juan Soto vs Corey Seager: Patient vs Aggressive Hitting

Every hitter who ever steps into the box eventually grapples with this question.

“How often should I swing?”

Some say always take the first pitch, some say wait for your pitch, others say wait for the heater. The philosophies go on and on, but they almost always preach patience. While most seem to believe a patient hitter is best, the truth is more complicated.

In this piece we’re going to break down a couple of the game’s biggest stars and discuss how both extremely patient and extremely aggressive hitters find success.

The Patient Hitter

First, what is the philosophy of a patient hitter? The idea is with patience the more pitches you’ll see from a pitcher and the more likely you are to get a great pitch to hit or draw a walk. It’s done by starting most at bats very passively looking to avoid balls out of the zone and strikes on the outside edges.

By doing this, patient hitters are putting themselves in position to see more 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1 counts where hitters have the biggest advantages. This also includes the added benefit of working the pitcher’s pitch count.

The patient approach is often supported by analytics which greatly values drawing walks for a higher on base percentage.

The hallmarks of great patient hitters

·       Trying to draw more walks, very low swing % on the first pitch

·       Waiting for something over the middle or a certain pitch type

·       Studying the pitcher by working the count

The Downsides of Patient Hitting

·       Easier to fall behind in the count

·       Often more strikeouts

Great patient hitters of 2023

Juan Soto

No one likes shuffling, I mean taking pitches more than Juan Soto. His extreme patience helped him lead the league in walks and gave him tons of opportunities in hitter’s counts to do damage. Getting to hitter’s counts holds extra importance for Soto. In these counts he’s more likely to get fastballs and Soto is consistently one of the best fastball hitters in the sport.

However, taking more pitches can produce its own trouble. If the pitcher is throwing strikes a hitter can quickly fall behind and get into two strike counts. Most patient hitters accept striking out more as the one downside to their approach. But Juan Soto isn’t like most patient hitters, his skillset uniquely positions him to mitigate the risk of getting into more two strike counts.

Soto possesses perhaps the best eye in the sport leading him to only chase out of the zone at a microscopic rate of 16%. This great eye makes him far less afraid of facing two strike counts where pitchers constantly try to get hitters chasing out of the zone. Additionally, he had a low whiff rate of just 20%, which gives him even more confidence in surviving two strike counts.

Ultimately, no one fits the patient approach better than Juan Soto.

The Aggressive Hitter

Today's smart aggressive hitters also engage in a strategic analytical game. Considering that pitchers often land a first pitch strike, falling behind in the count early, even just 0-1, can significantly reduce a hitter's likelihood of success. Even lesser odds come if they take a second strike.

Informed by this, savvy aggressive hitters avoid this setback by attacking more often early in the at-bat when it’s a strike. This helps them to avoid dangerous two strike counts more often than patient hitters.

The aggressive approach lessens their ability to draw walks but more consistently allows them to attack pitches in the zone.

The Hallmarks of great aggressive hitters

·       First pitch swinging to avoid getting behind in the count

·       Are only aggressive in the strike zone

·       Typically, higher batting average and a lower walk rate

The Downsides to Aggressive Hitting

·       Typically leads to more chasing out the zone

·       Lessens your ability to work the opposing starter/Study the pitcher

Great aggressive hitters of 2023

Corey Seager

The epitome of smart aggressive hitting in the modern game is Corey Seager. He is nearly doubling the swing rate of the patient hitters and almost tripling the rate of Mookie Bett’s first pitch swings. Although his very high swing percentage and tendency to swing at the first pitch might seem reckless, they are not.

Seager doesn’t have Soto’s great eye, he chases out of the zone at nearly twice the rate of Soto at 28%. His whiff rate is also higher, both things make him much more vulnerable in two strike counts. Seager’s counter is to then attack earlier in the at-bat to avoid two strike counts and getting behind in the count in general. This early count swinging gets Seager to even achieve a lower strike out rate than Soto.

Seager Loves Meatballs

There’s one significant downside to Seager’s approach compared to Soto’s, a lower on base percentage. But there’s also an upside. The aggressive approach makes Seager ready to swing on all counts. This willingness to swing in any count makes him ready for any pitch down the middle, statistically tracked as meatball swing percentage.

Seager doesn’t waste these pitches and he swings at 95% of them. Juan Soto, like most patient hitters, is often working the count or looking for a particular pitch leading him to let more of these pitches go swinging at only 75% of them.

By swinging at more pitches down the middle Seager did what you’d expect, he got more extra base hits. Even though Seager played 43 fewer games than Soto last season, he still managed to get 7 more extra-base hits.

So, what should a hitter be? Patient or aggressive?

A great hitter should understand when it’s best to switch up their aggression at the plate. While Soto and Seager typically stay within their preferred tendencies, they’re also willing to change depending on the situation.

For instance, if Juan Soto were facing a pitcher who hardly gives up walks or a pitcher who throws a lot of first pitch strikes. It would be a good idea for him to be more aggressive to avoid getting behind in the count and to get himself a good pitch to hit.

On the other hand, if Corey Seager were going against a pitcher who struggles with their control it would be a good idea to tone down the aggressiveness because this pitcher consistently falls behind in the count. 

There are countless other game situations that lend themselves more to the use of a certain style. Smart hitters will have to read the situation.

In The End

Whether a hitter loves to ambush the first pitch or work themselves into a good count both patient and aggressive hitters can be great. But above all else hitters should consider their own skillset at the plate and consider the situation to determine their best approach.

So, who are you closer to, Soto or Seager?

References

·       Stats and information pulled from Baseball Savant  Statcast Custom Leaderboards | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

·      OpenAI’s DALL-E “Hitting” Graphic [Generated March 27th, 2024]